This Search Engine Land article, by Luca Tagliaferro, examines why major studies from companies like Ahrefs, Semrush, and Seer Interactive yield wildly contradictory findings about AI search's impact on website traffic and conversions.

The contradiction: Ahrefs reports top-ranking pages lose roughly 34% of clicks when AI Overviews appear, while Semrush found a slight decrease in zero-click searches after AI Overviews launched. Even more confusing: five different studies reached five different conclusions about whether ChatGPT traffic converts better, worse, or the same as Google traffic.

Why does the divergence happen:

The article identifies several key factors creating these opposing narratives. Industry and business model matter significantly—an e-commerce site selling commodity products experiences AI search differently from a B2B software company. Query intent creates massive variation in outcomes. Studies conducted across different time periods capture different user demographics and evolving AI features. Sample sizes and selection bias also dramatically distort conclusions.

The business interest angle:

Each research organization has incentives shaping its framing. Ahrefs emphasizes disruption (reinforcing the need for their SEO tools), Semrush highlights opportunity (positioning their AI-powered platform), and agencies like Seer Interactive benefit from the complexity that requires expert guidance.

The core insight: The impact of AI search is radically segment-specific, depending on industry, business model, whether traffic is branded or non-branded, customer journey stage, content type, and audience demographics. Large sample sizes create an illusion of certainty that may be unwarranted.

Practical takeaway: Rather than trusting any single industry study, marketers must conduct their own analysis for their specific situation, holding conclusions lightly while staying adaptable.

The article can be found here.